Curriculum·Sophomore·S203
Chart Literacy and Evidence
The head-and-shoulders pattern, tested. Carol Osler's Federal Reserve Bank of New York staff report (No.
Lesson 1 opens on
The wicks of 10 October 2025
During the deleveraging event of 10 October 2025, more than $19B of leverage was liquidated in roughly a day.5 percent was forced selling, while market makers withdrew and spreads widened. On a daily chart the entire episode appears as a single bar with a long lower shadow.
The lessons
- S203-01The primitivesState what a bar records and the three things it discardsabout 31 min · opens on The wicks of 10 October 2025
- S203-02Market structureDefine structure in terms that can be applied identically by two people to the same chartabout 31 min · opens on The literature on technical trading rules, surveyed
- S203-03Support, resistance, and supply/demandState the mechanisms by which a price level could matter, and which ones are testableabout 31 min · opens on Support for Resistance, tested on intraday exchange rates
- S203-04The three statesClassify a market into trending, ranging or volatile using a rule applied without hindsightabout 31 min · opens on Data-snooping and technical trading rules, tested out of sample
- S203-05Multi-timeframe contextEstablish which timeframe your question lives on before opening any chartabout 31 min · opens on The five-day horizon in the support and resistance study
- S203-06The honesty moduleState the four findings this course reported and why they do not collapse into a verdictabout 32 min · opens on The financial Turing test
- S203-07Trendlines and channelsState a trendline construction rule precise enough that a second person reproduces your lineabout 30 min · opens on Foundations of Technical Analysis, and the problem it had to solve first
- S203-08Moving averagesState what a moving average computes and derive its lag from the window lengthabout 40 min · opens on The moving average rules, and the correction that followed
- S203-09OscillatorsExplain what a bounded oscillator measures, and why the bound is a property of the formulaabout 41 min · opens on The 70 and 30 thresholds, disowned by the discipline that teaches them
- S203-10Volatility and volume toolsExplain why volatility tools are the most defensible indicators and what they are defensible forabout 40 min · opens on Bitwise's volume analysis for the SEC, March 2019
- S203-11Fibonacci, honestlyState where the ratios come from and which of the common levels is not oneabout 30 min · opens on The evidence base that was barely built
- S203-12Indicator hygieneCompute the configuration space you have access to, and read it as the overfitting risk it isabout 31 min · opens on Your own configuration space, counted
Labs
S203-L
Twenty randomized historical sequences with the right side hidden. Mark structure, identify the state, and commit to a directional read with a confidence percentage before revealing. Scored on calibration, not accuracy.
S203-L2
Three contradictory conclusions
One chart, three indicator configurations, three defensible and mutually contradictory conclusions. Write all three, state which you would act on, and state what would prove you wrong.
