Curriculum·Sophomore·S206
Macro, Cycles, and Narrative
The stock-to-flow model, and the floor model beside it. PlanB's stock-to-flow model relates bitcoin's price to the ratio of existing supply to new issuance.
Start with lesson 15 lessons · about 2.5 hours · 1 lab · free account to read in full
Lesson 1 opens on
The uncorrelated asset, measured
In January 2022 International Monetary Fund staff published a Global Financial Stability Note examining spillovers between crypto and equity markets, with a blog post summarizing it.01 over 2017 to 2019, consistent with the widely repeated claim that crypto was an uncorrelated asset offering diversification.36.
The lessons
- S206-01Macro driversState what correlation measures, what it does not, and why a correlation figure requires a windowabout 31 min · opens on The uncorrelated asset, measured
- S206-02Flows and structureExplain why a wrapper's price can differ from the value of what it holds, and what closes the gapabout 30 min · opens on The Grayscale discount, and the day it closed
- S206-03Cycles, contestedCount the independent observations behind a cycle claim, and state what inference that sample supportsabout 30 min · opens on The sample size behind the four-year cycle
- S206-04Narrative mechanicsDescribe the five stages a narrative cycle passes through, and what is observable at eachabout 31 min · opens on The AI agent token cycle, 2024 to 2025
- S206-05Information literacyIdentify the economic interest behind any piece of market commentary, or establish that you cannotabout 30 min · opens on The $250,000 Instagram post
Labs
S206-L
Post-mortem of one completed 2024 to 2026 narrative cycle. When did it become consensus, who was early, who was paid, and where was the exhaustion signal?